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Historical data showing how U.S. stocks have tended to lose money less often in election years, showing the smaller percent of calendar years that lost money, which often tended to be driven by historic economic events, not elections. Included is a glimpse at seasonal stock and bond returns in election years. Also asset classes, inverted yield curve update, high yield bonds environment, and private credit returns.

Despite the unusual performance in Q1 in which stocks started positive and bonds negative, this has been the longest bond bear market with active and flexible bond funds outperforming. See what that could mean for cash vs bonds with performance data following periods when money market or bond fund assets are greater. Also data for stock and bond correlations, trends in stock sectors by US Presidents, and charts on the 15th best start to a year for stocks.

Tracking historical data, by the number of single day stock market returns of +/- 2% or more, shows that lower volatility has typically resulted in stronger returns. This overview also looks at past stock trends following a Fed rate cut, S&P 500 milestones for all-time highs, the strength of Mutual funds, EFTs and more.

Can something be learned from studying the past? Historical data showing that stock market volatility during election years has been generally subdued unless there is a large recession, such as in ’32, ’08 and ’20. A brief look at the large swings between growth and value, stocks vs cash, data gives a glimpse of the average stock market return following January since 1926, and how the bear market was recently tamed.

This market overview shows the recent recovery in stocks. U.S. stocks average a 10% return, but they very rarely return their average in a calendar year as they did in 2023. Also take a look at the bond market average for 2023, along with data on money market, bond assets, and cash yields. Included is an interesting look at the historic market performance in election years.

After losing money in 6 consecutive months, bonds make a historic rebound along with a bounce back in 60/40 portfolios. This market overview also includes more data on the bond market and how to understand changes to interest rates and bond returns by looking at history.

Is there potentially peak pessimism for bonds? Check out past stats for losing streaks for stocks and bonds, as well as long-term bond returns and starting interest rates. Take a look to see how not all stocks within the S&P500 are the same and find the historic sweet spots for stock and bond returns during a Fed pause.

This month’s market overview takes a closer look at cash options and bond performance. Find out where there’s good news in performance since the low in interest rates. And check out the stats coming in that have been tracking stock volatility this year along with a glimpse of what the 4th quarter may hold.

This month’s Student of the Market explores the peak yield curve inversion and what happens in the gap between short-term and long-term interest rates, along with looking at the real yield impact of inflation. You’ve probably noticed that upcoming elections are ramping up quickly. Here’s a peak at historical stock returns in election years and what might be on the horizon.

In this monthly market overview, we look at the 60/40 portfolio and what it’s been doing, how the Fed funds rate has surpassed inflation and what that could mean for bonds. Also a check on the housing market, Tech Stocks, AI breakthroughs and the anatomy of a Bull Market.