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Articles View: Market Commentary

March 27, 2024
Stock Volatility Remained Low

Tracking historical data, by the number of single day stock market returns of +/- 2% or more, shows that lower volatility has typically resulted in stronger returns. This overview also looks at past stock trends following a Fed rate cut, S&P 500 milestones for all-time highs, the strength of Mutual funds, EFTs and more.

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February 27, 2024
Stock Volatility by Presidential Election Year

Can something be learned from studying the past? Historical data showing that stock market volatility during election years has been generally subdued unless there is a large recession, such as in ’32, ’08 and ’20. A brief look at the large swings between growth and value, stocks vs cash, data gives a glimpse of the average stock market return following January since 1926, and how the bear market was recently tamed.

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January 29, 2024
U.S. Stocks Ended the Year Well

This market overview shows the recent recovery in stocks. U.S. stocks average a 10% return, but they very rarely return their average in a calendar year as they did in 2023. Also take a look at the bond market average for 2023, along with data on money market, bond assets, and cash yields. Included is an interesting look at the historic market performance in election years.

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January 2, 2024
Bonds Rebound with Historic Rally

After losing money in 6 consecutive months, bonds make a historic rebound along with a bounce back in 60/40 portfolios. This market overview also includes more data on the bond market and how to understand changes to interest rates and bond returns by looking at history.

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November 29, 2023
Historic Stock and Bond Streaks

Is there potentially peak pessimism for bonds? Check out past stats for losing streaks for stocks and bonds, as well as long-term bond returns and starting interest rates. Take a look to see how not all stocks within the S&P500 are the same and find the historic sweet spots for stock and bond returns during a Fed pause.

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October 31, 2023
Historic Dips in Bonds

Along with an October recap, team members Adam Tirapelle and Jason Rankin explain what’s happening with down bond returns and the history with bond returns using data going back to 1928. They also clarify drawdowns and the feeling they evoke, along with Housing, Cash Concerns and the effects of Global Events on the Market.

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October 26, 2023
Peak Inflation and Performance

This month’s market overview takes a closer look at cash options and bond performance. Find out where there’s good news in performance since the low in interest rates. And check out the stats coming in that have been tracking stock volatility this year along with a glimpse of what the 4th quarter may hold.

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October 1, 2023
Making Sense of Sticky Inflation Effects

Strong Valley team members Adam and Chris give a recap of September along with a discussion about how interest rates are being affected by Sticky Inflation. They also touch on the housing market, college values, and an update on the Secure Act 2.0 details that could affect your RMD.

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September 26, 2023
Peak Yield Curve Inversion?

This month’s Student of the Market explores the peak yield curve inversion and what happens in the gap between short-term and long-term interest rates, along with looking at the real yield impact of inflation. You’ve probably noticed that upcoming elections are ramping up quickly. Here’s a peak at historical stock returns in election years and what might be on the horizon.

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August 26, 2023
The 60/40 Portfolio Bounces Back

In this monthly market overview, we look at the 60/40 portfolio and what it’s been doing, how the Fed funds rate has surpassed inflation and what that could mean for bonds. Also a check on the housing market, Tech Stocks, AI breakthroughs and the anatomy of a Bull Market.

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