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With a focus on how the Market responds to a Federal Reserve pause, this month we examine the effect on Stocks and Bonds. Also included is a deeper look at Money Market assets and their recent historic peaking, along with U.S. debt ceiling concerns and an overview of what’s driving the market these days.
This end of the month Market overview looks at the dramatic swing in falling interest rates and how it affected market volatility. It also includes data showing how U.S. stocks have persevered through financial crisis and bank failures. Plus a new look at Money Market and Bond Fund flows.
This month’s Student of the Market looks at U.S. stock performance after peaks in Money Market fund assets and performance following peaks in inflation. The big question in many minds is “how long will this inflation last?” An answer might be found in these stats on prior inflation cycles. Plus a chart on a possible downside with risky income asset classes and more market insights.
Tracking sport stats is immensely popular - because what an athlete has done in the past can often give an indication of what they might do in the future. The history of bull market rebounds can shed similar insight. This month we look at historical performance following a bear market and the basic structure of a bull market. Included is a recap of performance based on how much the Fed raises rates, the most reliable recession indicator, and more.
Focusing on what happened in 2022, this Student of the Market shows an overview of last year’s performance compared to similar years in the market’s history. This may be a window into the possibilities for 2023 and the future of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Also a look at the numbers showing that even though portfolio diversification works, it doesn’t always feel good.
Many are questioning if the bounce in stocks is recent durable? For now, this past Oct. & Nov. performance for U.S. stocks is being counted in the top 15 “best 2-month” performances since 1950. This month’s Student of the Market also shows the 2022 YTD stats for market volatility and growth vs. value fund assets, as well a more insight into what’s going on with bonds.
U.S. stocks historically average 10% per year but rarely do they finish a year at that level. See the difference between the average annual return and what happened to stocks YTD in 2022 by looking at the range of returns for stocks by the full calendar year. A quick glance at the most reliable recession indicator and how alternative asset classes do better when the return on “cash” is higher. Plus stats on market performance.
As market volatility continues and the mid-term election draws rapidly near, this month’s Student of the Market gives insight into the relationship between midterm election years and market performance. You might be surprised to see the breakdown of U.S. stock sector performance for the last five Presidents. Also stats on performance following peaks in inflation and performance 12 months after bad starts for bonds/stocks, may bring some relief.
After a big July for stocks, August was a bit disappointing at -4.1% even though historically the average return after “best months” is 1.1%. This month’s Student of the Market looks at those type of U.S. Stock Market ups and downs from a historical point of view, offering some relief to turbulent feelings by looking at the big picture.
With a good Market showing in July, what are the historical trends for the 6 months following? Now throw in mid-term elections and this month’s overview of market performance gets very interesting. Also included are past trends for stock performance during recessions and a quick look at a couple of inverted yield curves.